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Recently a student asked me what an open Rotor was and I replied it was basically a turbo prop but with things being how they are a sexier name had to be invented so they came up with this. It got me to thinking; as we are progressively backed up against the wall by reality it is only a matter of time before the open rotor makes its reappearance and so it is timely to have a look at how accurate my glib explanation was. Basically the problem with propellers is that they suffer from severe efficiency losses as the speed of the propeller tips approaches the speed of sound and basically the advantage of them is that they have to accelerate the working fluid (the air they fly in) less because they accelerate a lot more of it. I.e. they have in effect a much greater by-pass ratio than Turbo fans. The big question is where is the best trade off for speed versus efficiency. Time will tell. the Russian Bear long range patrol aircraft with its huge counter rotating props has been with us for years and conferred enormous range advantages when compared with the turbo jets of the time albeit with a considerable disadvantage in reliability. The new A400 European Military lifter will set new standards of frugality and is forecast to cruise at 450 kts which is quite respectable. After the next round of geared fans it looks as it there is only one place to go and that is the Open Rotor. Look for it in the next new wave; maybe with a blended body conformation aircraft. Read more…

WW 1 and to a lesser extent WW2 caught the US and Europe unprepared for conflict and with an industrial base of modest proportions. Despite many warning signs political decisions were it seems based on what government officials hope to be the case rather than what experts were warning to be the case. As the sage said those who do not learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them. There are some commentators who see a similar situation developing again. World War I caught the U.S. military unprepared, and although Congress was quick to order a massive buildup of guns, tanks and planes, with “virtually no defense industrial base … the war was over before U.S. industry could deliver any of them.” Today’s Pentagon budget cuts risk a return to the same situation. Read more…

Some years ago (maybe 30) I read in Flight that the time was coming when a latest generation Combat aircraft was going to take the entire GDP of a small nation. At the time I took it seriously and though it a bit of an exaggeration but as time has worn on it seems they were joking at the time using delightful British irony but that they had unwittingly hit the nail on the head. That day is here with the F22 that the US wont sell to any one because it cost them so dear and mega Airliners taking many Billions to create and 100s of millions to buy.
As the financial crisis looms and doomsayers prattle away I wonder whether now is the time for a paradigm shift. Skip the A380 and A350 and B787 etc and go for a highly standardized no frills blended body well and truly subsonic alternatively powered (fuel cells and props?) solutions that will halve the cost per kg per kilometer (Note I use metric as I am talking of the future)
Anyone with the courage to do it should (?!) clean up.

An Airbus-commissioned report warns of danger to global employment if air transport’s long-term growth is limited
A single percentage point fall in air traffic growth over the next 20 years could eliminate 6 million jobs worldwide, according to a new report “Aviation: the real world wide web”. The report sets out to counterbalance the long-running debate about the impact of aviation on the environment. It was compiled by analysts Oxford Economics, and commissioned by Airbus, with the support of British Airways and EasyJet.
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The worst might be over for the aviation industry as the latest international traffic data for April 2009 has shown passenger demand fall only 3.1 percent compared to an 11.1 percent fall in March.

April figures were released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on Wednesday, showing the average passenger load factor was 74.4% compared to 72.1% in March. Read more…