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Reflections on the decade gone

mgiles — Sun, 10 Jan 2010 01:52:13 +0000

What do we look back on. Fuel shocks, peak oil, environmental concerns, civilian space travel, the spread of mass air transport, innovation, war, the rise of killing airborne Robots and terrorism. 9/11 was perhaps the most riveting and defining moment of the last decade with the most wide spread consequences. It was focusing and a watershed and yet its seeds were being sown for many of the preceding years. Osama wrought much more than he knew and we have not yet learned all that we must from this single event. To me one of the central facts is that air travel is not like anything else. It is perhaps outside electronic communications one of the most pivotal of world activities. While people are people there will be those who would do harm and those who would protect. Maybe the aviation community needs to be even more proactive than it has been in exploring the development and administration of aviation. Watching the rise and fall of airlines some of them state supported and others not (with the relevant states breathing many sighs of relief that they are not involved) it is tempting to conclude that some sort of stabilizing interventions at a multinational level are increasingly called for. Meaningful Dialogue between the players would be a good start.
Happy new year to all.

Water Bomber Politics for fire Season?

mgiles — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 08:06:43 +0000

Elvis drops 9500 L of water

Students of bush fires will know that various authorities claim the Australian Bush fires are as bad as any in the world and the Chauvinists would say they are without parallel. The season has now started and the ghoulish and gleeful but macabre voyeurs are on a countdown to another season of excellence or should it be infamy. It is now clear from the Royal Commission that there was severe mismanagement at very senior levels. This must include the State Government which bears ultimate responsibility. The current Victorian Government has been there for a long time and still seems to think that it can blame previous administrations. It used to be called the mirror government (I’ll look into it) and now seems more and more to be a righteous initiative free area which looks for a scapegoat when pressed and fines them massively while it continues the grand old tradition of Victorian State governments of either stripe, of infra structure inaction. Only the buzz words change: Fiscal responsibility , responsible leadership and so on. A recent little gem surfaced which would seem to bear a bit of closer examination. After a particularly bad summer a number of ultra large helicopters know locally as Elvises (after the name of the first to come to public awareness) have been engaged for fire fighting work. These are the Erickson S 64 (9500 kg of water) of US Military origins and have done a very good job. The first time they came in mass they did not have a lot of wok but subsequently have been veryvaluable. The need is hard to predict and it is a lot of money to spend if they are not needed but still what is the price of insurance? Until that year of disaster, requests for such capability had been steadfastly refused with the usual official smokescreen of reasons.
Even more recently another gem surfaced. During the 2009 prior to the Feb 7th Black Saturday disaster the Russian Government offered the Victorian Government the use of IL 76 very large water bombers (able to drop 11,000 gallons of water). They were turned down for reasons which range from garbage to plausible (Too long to arrange certification, not suitable for the mission, we have enough, time for transit too long etc).

IL 76 Water tanker

The US fire fighting services have had the same offers and made the same response. Some critics of this decision are very scathing about the reasons. The US at least do have some very heavy metal available but the Vic Government has only Elvises and smaller.
American and some Australian experts have seen the Russian aircraft in action and are very impressed. They put the refusal of the Russian offer by the US Fire Authorities down to Politics. One of the reasons for refusal which seemed implausable was that the water could not be placed where it was needed. At the Kinglake fire this seems very unlikely.
There also seems to have been a lot of politics in the Australian situation. A sort of “don’t question us we are the experts” and “don’t get in the way we know what we are doing”. It would be very interesting to see a detailed account of why the Russian offer was refused and to compare the cost of the Russian offer with the over all cost of fire fighting. More fiddling while civilisation burns?

Evergreen B 747 drops 22,000 Gals

Frog in a pot phenomenon

mgiles — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 06:45:32 +0000

Frog in pot

There is a saying that if one slowly heats a pot of water with a live frog in it the frog will go to sleep and not get out and so get cooked whereas if he is dropped into a hot pot he will leap out. So it is in many situations in life. We have it in aviation where slowly evolving situations get way past a point where some action should be taken because each development is incremental and not so different from the last situation. So it is with Airbus pitots and standby instruments and now with Flight 188 overflying its destination I think we have the same thing. It does not really matter if they went to sleep or lost track of time there was considerable potential for trouble. Much has been made of the poor match of the human physiology and performance and yet steadily the man is being taken out of the loop in flying so that such things can happen. An extraordinary number of RPT flights pass uneventfully but where a trend emerges it should be addressed. Ground control is now possible and studies should be made, discussed and decisions taken. Pilots do not have to leave the cockpit. It is just another logical progression. The Helios tragedy where apparently a cabin crew member was walking about with a portable O2 system but unable to enter the cockpit is another situation where ground control could have saved hundreds. The reasons why this has not happened are many and various and to do with how aviation has evolved a rigid and inflexible regulatory process. Vested interests are many but it is mainly a sort of general inertia and no one has had the courage really to say come on guys wake up or more to the point, hear those who have been saying such. As usual there will be wails of technical difficulty and cost but it seems clear that it is going to be a small cost in the long-term and long over due for considerations. Maybe the risk of different sort of hostile take over is behind the resistance but we seem to find ways to trust our fellow men in many other situations. Why not?

911 Impact

In this last episode apparently, the pilots were so engrossed in conversation while checking their laptops that they lost contact with ground controllers for about 90 minutes.
The two pilots involved have had their licenses revoked, the Federal Aviation Administration reported.
The Wall Street Journal described the episode that occurred last week as illustrating two of the biggest problems in commercial aviation: cockpit discipline and pilot complacency. Surely, said airline experts, they must have fallen asleep. Apparently not. According to interview notes from the National Transportation Safety Board: – Both pilots are experienced and have never had an accident, incident or violation.
- Neither reported medical conditions. Both said they were not sleepy or fatigued. They had just had a 19-hour layover before the flight from San Diego to Minneapolis. Yet, from 6:46 p.m. Central Time until 8:14 p.m., the pilots did not communicate, reported The New York Times. More than a dozen controllers in three radar rooms tried to contact the pilots. Was the plane hijacked? Were the pilots in a medical crisis? Four fighter jets were on runway alert in case they were needed. What happened?
In short, the pilots radioed to controllers that there was “cockpit distraction” and “dealing with company issues.” It appears the pilots were discussing a new workplace schedule system following the merger of Northwest and Delta Air Lines, The Wall Street Journal reported. In the meantime, they failed to switch radio frequencies for a different set of air traffic controllers. Besides this inexcusable (? I’ll bet they dont ever do this again so why terminate thier careers?) example of incompetence, this points out several areas needing correction. Are cockpits too cozy? So much piloting is done automatically, in dark cockpits, that it’s easy to nod off or become inattentive. Airlines need to take steps to put the pilots at work doing something useful during that “down time” in the air. Some Boeing aircraft are equipped with warnings when pilots fail to adjust controls, The Wall Street Journal reported. Are voice recorders adequate?
The box recording the cockpit discussions only had the last 30 minutes available, leaving no record of the earlier distracted time. Every box should record every minute of every flight.
And what about video cameras? They should be used in every cockpit. This is not a privacy issue for the pilots, it’s a safety issue. When so many lives are at stake – 144 passengers, two pilots and three attendants – every reasonable means should be taken to protect them.
The good example of being prepared has been well documented, when Chester “Sully” Sullenberger safely landed an aircraft in the Hudson River with only a few minutes from warning to landing. As for the Northwest Airline pilots, every possible lesson should be learned from this strange incident. It would be appropriate for Congress to hold hearings – not to sensationalize this particular incident – but to probe for issues it has revealed. from http://jacksonville.com/opinion/editorials/2009-10-30/story/aircraft_safety_incredible_failure

Frog in pot

Green Airliners a must

mgiles — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 03:24:12 +0000

Today the Bow Bells will chime 350 times to mark an International Day of Concern about Global warming. Might take quite some time. And hopefully give many pause to think. Many are left more than a little bemused by the various claims made about the climate and who is doing what to whom. The press in an allegedly high minded attempt to achieve balance seems to print back to back articles by doom sayers and climate skeptic which serves to confuse rather than inform. Some actually seem more bent on inflaming the debate than informing or analyzing. An example is the local Australian Provocateur Andrew Bolte in the Sun Herald.
For what it is worth I have been running thru the literature with a view to reaching some sort of understanding. My qualifications are: an interest and a rather stale PhD from a good university in an unrelated field of Science so make of this what you will.
Once one start trolling thru the literature it emerges that there is a consensus that is truly impressive. The globe is warming and man has contributed to this. The closer the area of expertise of the sources is to climate the more there is the agreement. When the arguments of the skeptics are examined they seem to all be readily shot down. The longer it goes on the more the persistent skeptics seem to be willfully blind and self serving (IMHO).
This being so what are we to think? Well one thing is that we better nudge the political apparatus into a much more vigorous form of action and another is that those with an interest in any particular area should get into the action and start consciousness raising. For Aviation this means getting on the green bandwagon and pushing for more rational ways of achieving our goals.
Aviation is here to stay. It is hard to imagine that the world will relapse back into surface only transport but maybe we need to be more thoughtful about how it is done and what travels by air and when. For a variety of reasons expert propulsion engineers see Hydrocarbons as the drug of choice for large and fast passenger aeroplanes and see that it will be so for some time. Considerations like energy density and the problems of alternative suggest that if hydrocarbons are to be used at all applications such as air transport are the appropriate ones. For many applications however some lateral thinking is going to be necessary. Maybe we should resurrect sail power for freight. Maybe the age of the airship is here again? Maybe many things but for sure one of them is we should think long and hard and also act decisively and early. Mutually contradictory but that is life. My expert friends tell me that capitalism will solve it all. The market will ensure all the necessary trade offs will take place. I fear not. The market seems not to be able to see very far into the future and increasingly the Scientists tell us that the longer we wait the worse it will be. Certainly the market will respond eventually but it could be a tragedy for much of humanity if we wait for that sort of regulation by catastrophe to take place.

VLJ Dreaming and the Stratos

mgiles — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 04:02:10 +0000

Stratos 714

In the land of Oz we have long distances, high temperatures and a member of the old British colonial family and good mate New Zealand an inconvenient 1200nm or so to the East. One of the results of this is that the aviation oriented members of the Oz community spend a lot of time poring over performance specs, cash flows and maintenance costs not to mention single engine vs twin engine safety analyses so that we can give substance to our dreams of commuting from our place of work in Oz to our hideaway in NZ. Various products come to mind but for the average moderately successful person who is sold on flying their own aircraft to and from there is a slippery slope with no obvious sweet spot. The Cessna Mustang eg looks to be a really good little rocket with considerable charter potential in the SE of Australia as it will cover Vic and NSW Adelaide Melbourne Sydney stuff pretty well but it requires a bit of planning and usually a stop on the way to NZ and certainly one on the way back . The Piperjet looks better but is single engine (on the other hand it is a Turbine and in flight-shut downs are said to be of the order of 1 in 150,000 hrs of operation). It is however still one’s one and only life in the opinion of many and the statistics of twins (likely to lose both engines once in 22.5 trillion hours of operation) are still pursuasive. Since nothing quite fills the bill and the idea of flying a personal aircraft with DOC of more than about $700 per hour starts to look a bit extravagant, people dream on with brochures and business plans spread out before them. As the result of a recent airport purchase the business I am associated with has put the bizjet on the back burner for a few months and this has encouraged a new bout of dreaming. The latest target is the Stratos. Obviously some smart people have got together what they know is about in available technology and decided they can do better than has been done so far. Essentially if they were to achieve their goals there would be an affordable non stop commuter from Oz to NZ. Back to one engine though. Also one engine at 41,000 ft raises some thoughts about emergency descent etc. Probably pie in the sky (one wonders what is in the water they are drinking but does wish them every success). Sooner or later some such will fly and what a buzz that will be.

All-new design airplanes from startup companies are often called “paper airplanes” because the company has no track record of producing any kind of airplane. So when you design a paper airplane, you should shoot for the moon, and Stratos, a new would-be jet maker in Bend, Oregon, has with its Model 714 personal jet. For 2-million bucks per copy Stratos says the 714 will carry four people and baggage for 1,500 nm cruising at 41,000 feet with IFR reserves. Stratos accurately points out that no existing or planned airplane can do all of that.

The Stratos 714 is the brainchild of Carsten Sundin, who has had long involvement with the kit plane maker Lancair, and entrepreneur Michael Lamaire. The Stratos formula is to provide only four seats, high speed and very long range, clearly an airplane that owner-pilots want. To achieve their goals the airplane will be very lightweight because of its composite construction. And the performance will come from plenty of power, 3,030 pounds of thrust from a single Williams FJ44-3AP turbofan engine. With a projected maximum takeoff weight of 7,000 pounds the 714 would have a thrust-to-weight ratio of 2.3 to 1, which is more thrust per pound of airplane than even the speedy Mach .92 Citation X. Typical twin-engine jets have thrust-to-weight ratios of around 3 to 1. Clearly such a power-to-weight ratio would get the 714 to its certified ceiling of 41,000 feet quickly. And if you want to leave friends behind, promised IFR range is 2,000 nm with only two onboard.

Diamond launched the single-engine personal jet category with announcement of its D-Jet several years ago. But the D-Jet concept is far different from Stratos, as Diamond is developing a jet with a performance and operating envelope that will not be a big leap for the single-engine piston pilots expected to be the majority of customers. Cirrus is following a similar path with its SJ50 Vision jet. Piper is aiming for more performance from the PiperJet with a top cruise of 360 knots, and the V-tailed Eclipse EA400 single is somewhere in between with a projected cruise of 330 knots. None of the airplanes have entered production, though Diamond has been flying developmental D-Jets for many months, Cirrus has an early test article in flight, and by the time you read this Piper is expected to have flown a PiperJet.

To accomplish its dream Stratos faces the usual bugbears of keeping empty weight low so payload doesn’t disappear, meeting the stall speed limit of 61 knots for single-engine airplanes, dealing with the spin requirement all singles face, and exploring the certification requirements of turbine singles. For example, no single-engine turbine we know of has been certified for flight above 31,000 feet, and it’s impossible to predict how the FAA will interpret rules that apply above that level. And, of course, the old saying that it is money that propels all airplanes raises a big question mark for any startup manufacturer in today’s economic and credit environment.

Renderings of the 714 show that Stratos has elected to use engine air inlets in the wing roots feeding an engine mounted below and aft of the cabin through ducts. The airplane has two external baggage compartments, one large enough for golf clubs or skis, an important feature for any owner pilot. The wing—for which no dimensions were released—is to be of laminar flow design, and Stratos will pressurize the cabin to such a level that it will remain at or below 6,000 feet when the airplane is flying at 41,000 feet.

The speed, range, payload and selling price goals of the 714 all appear to be very difficult to achieve—a point driven home by the fact that none of the other companies have even attempted them—but the most challenging target in the Stratos plan is first delivery in early 2010. That gives the company just over 18 months to build prototypes, complete certification and enter production. For more information, contact Stratos at stratosaircraft.com.
From http://www.flyingmag.com/turbine/1093/stratos-dreams-big-with-small714-single-engine-jet.html

Australian Government Aircraft decisions constantly wrong

mgiles — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 00:44:46 +0000

CA 15

Those with a long term interest in Australian aviation cannot help but bemoan the way government has constantly failed to support the Australian aircraft Industry. While Brazil for example and Israel and Sweden have all demonstrated that small nations can nonetheless build world class capability, Australia has constantly failed to support aviation. A recent publication by one of Australia’s best qualified observers spells this out with well argued and detailed information.

AFTER more than five decades sifting through the history of Australia’s aircraft manufacturing industry, Keith Meggs says the thing that always surprises him is the ineptness of government decisions.

He believes government inaction has robbed the nation of multiple opportunities to develop aviation manufacturing and make Australia a major player on the global stage.

He cites examples ranging from a lack of government support for the Commonwealth Aircraft Corporation to aborted plans to build Douglas DC-3 and Fokker Friendships in Australia. And after more than a century of aviation, he argues, nothing has changed.

While the federal government is prepared to spend millions propping up the car industry, Meggs says organisations such as Gippsland Aeronautics are unable to get funding and Boeing (Hawker de Havilland) has been laying off people.

“Turn some money away from cars, of which we have plenty, and put it into aeroplanes,” Meggs says.

“While the car industry employs people, so does the aircraft industry and they are more skilled than car people.

“That was one of the benefits of the wartime and post-war aeroplane industry. The skills that were built up to very high standards found their way back into the car industry and every other industry in Australia.”

The 81-year-old Melburnian, who this year was awarded the Medal of the Order of Australia for his research efforts, has just published the first of four, two-book volumes on Australian-built aircraft and the industry.

The meticulously detailed first volume, available from Victoria’s Finger-Four Publishing, contains a wealth of information, rare photographs, plans and drawings of aircraft built or proposed from the 1884 experiments of pioneer Lawrence Hargrave to 1939.

It is the culmination of a lifetime fascination with aviation and more than 50 years combing the country for every scrap of information about Australian-built aircraft he could find.

He was only six when he saw the 1934 Centenary Race and his penchant for collecting all things aviation followed soon after.

“Every time we went out shopping in the city, mum or grandma would buy me an aviation magazine or book and I’ve still got those with me,” he says.

In 1943, Meggs went straight from school to work at the Commonwealth Aircraft Corporation factory at Melbourne’s Fisherman’s Bend and stayed five years. He joined the RAAF in 1948, flying Mustangs, then Meteor jets in the Korean War, for which he was awarded the Distinguished Flying Medal, and later to Vampires. He rejoined the CAC and worked on Sabres and the Ceres crop duster before becoming an air traffic controller, then starting a 25-year career as a charter pilot.

This took him all over Australia as he called on people, visited libraries, museums, factories and aviation collections to gather his material, much of which is no longer available.

He also amassed a huge collection of correspondence over 55 years that he believes will be a goldmine for archivists.

“The people I was talking to and visited, who of course were building aeroplanes in 1909, 1910, 1911, are all gone,” he says. “But I’ve got some of the original material from them.

“I visited archives for years and years and any place where there was any receptacle of aviation material.

“And of course with CAC, where I worked for eight years altogether, I went back to them to go through their archives.”

Meggs says the most common reaction to his books is amazement at the level of detail packed into the weighty volumes.

His stunning achievement is made even more surprising by the fact that he wrote them in long hand. Someone else loaded the project on to discs. “I haven’t got a computer, in other words,” he says. “People say you should get one but if I got a computer now the time taken to learn how to use it would detract from my completing the work of getting the other volumes into print. That’s the priority.”

Those volumes will deal with the history of CAC and the Government Aircraft Factory through to wartime and post-war designs and proposals for home-built aircraft of the 1980s.

And why stop with in the mid-80s?

“Well, originally it was going to be in the mid-60s,” Meggs laughs. “Things crept up on me.”

Meggs article from http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26054634-23349,00.html

US Woman Champion killed in crash in UK

mgiles — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 00:02:47 +0000

In a grim reminder of the fact that aviation can bite even the highly gifted it has been reported that Vicki Cruze a past US Aerobatics champion was killed in a crash at Silverstone in the UK. She was flying an Edge 540. The crash is being investigated.
On the local Australian scene in recent months two other Icons of aerobatic excellence Pip Borman and Tom Moon have died in low level incidents.
This underlines that the studied perfection we have so often observed is the result of great dedication and always carries with it the threat of the unexpected. Anyone tempted to aerobat at low level should bear in mind the likely fact that all these people might still be alive if they had been gifted with the cushion of another 1000ft of altitude.