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Cessna talks sense

mgiles — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 08:48:21 +0000

In yet another demonstration of why they are the top GA Manufacturer Cessna has recently addressed the challenges and realities of the global aviation market place. Drawing on the history of Detroit and the automotive industry Cessna has called attention to the fundamentals of Aircraft Manufacture. The problems of Globalisation and costs invite broad input and consideration. Despite the advances of robots and technology aircraft are still very labor intensive to manufacture and any manufacture who ignores this does so at their peril. The new strategy is to optimize the research, design, resourcing, manufacture, assembly and development cycle. Cessna looks to stay on the leading edge by grasping the nettle.Could Wichita be the Detroit of aircraft?
BY MOLLY MCMILLIN
The Wichita Eagle
Wichita’s business jetmakers sometimes think about Detroit. Not that many years ago, U.S. automakers weren’t too concerned about emerging foreign competitors.
Productivity was poor, costs were out of control, and they became complacent, said Cessna Aircraft CEO Jack Pelton. Eventually, they lost their dominance.
Wichita, as the Air Capital of the World, can’t be in denial that what happened in Detroit could never happen here, Pelton said. “We have to work to make sure we don’t fall victim to similar circumstances,” Pelton said.
With the entrance of Brazil-based Embraer, where labor costs are lower, price competition is fierce. Honda also is entering the business jet market and many expect other global competitors will too someday.
Wichita companies can compete, but “we’ve got to get to this cost issue,” Pelton said. It also will help as planemakers struggle through a down economy.
The aviation industry is in a “global sourcing environment,” leaders of the industry said recently.
“I don’t think we can think about the world in any other way,” said Spirit AeroSystems CEO Jeff Turner.
It’s a controversial issue with unions and others who worry about high-paying manufacturing jobs leaving the U.S. But the executives of Wichita’s manufacturers spoke openly about the issue at a panel discussion, with analysts and in Eagle interviews over the past several weeks.
“It’s about competitiveness. It’s about quality. And it’s about cost,” said Hawker Beechcraft CEO Bill Boisture. “And in the end, how does the business persevere, survive and thrive.” As CEOs, their primary job is to keep their companies healthy. “If that means we have to go wherever to find the resources to get the job done — capital resources, people resources — and get it done cost effectively, we’re going to do that,” Turner said. Company leaders, however, say outsourcing isn’t something to be feared. Instead, Wichita’s aviation industry must focus on how best to utilize the highly technical, highly skilled work force that’s here and how to increase productivity. “We’ve got to be really good at the things we’re good at, do it at the places that make the most sense, and have a highly integrated supply network that has its headquarters and its key capacity in a place like Wichita,” Turner said. Wichita must change the way it views its aviation industry, the executives say. “The Air Capital can’t continue to operate as if it’s the center of the aerospace universe but must recognize it’s a ‘node’ in a vast global network that builds and buys aircraft,” Turner said.
Wichita planemakers are working with suppliers to bring down the cost of building an airplane. They’re working internally as well. Everything is on the table. Cessna and Hawker Beechcraft are consolidating facilities. Both are shifting some work to Mexico. Bombardier also has a plant there. Cessna is shifting parts work from its Columbus, Ga., plant and some from Wichita to its facility in Chihuahua, Mexico. Moving that work cuts labor costs by 50 percent, officials from Textron, Cessna’s parent company, told analysts last week.. “When you think about the back room, a lot of the subassembly, a lot of the more labor-intensive work, a lot of that is what we’re moving and, frankly, we have to move that to more cost-competitive places,” Scott Donnelly, president and CEO of Textron, said. Cessna will continue to make further assessments as time goes by, Donnelly said, although Pelton said Friday that the company doesn’t have a plan to move more work beyond what it has announced. Like any of its Cessna facilities, its Mexican factory must be productive, Pelton said. Long term, “the assumption is they will have a learning curve and get to a reasonable level of productivity,” Pelton said. “We’ll have to see.” Boisture acknowledges that moving work from Wichita is a controversial subject. “Everybody wants everything to stay here,” he said. “That’s an understandable emotion, until you look at your shareholders or your board and say, ‘Yes, I can be here, but here’s my margin.’ ” Suddenly, “you become an enterprise that can’t attract and allocate capital because you’re not efficient enough with (it). “Be careful what we ask for when we want everything to stay in one place, because that may not give our enterprises the economic answer that we all want in the long run.”

The Competition is no longer the ‘guys across the street’
The move to put work in lower-cost countries is a direct response to high labor costs and finding less-expensive places to build parts of planes, Boisture said. “It’s no more complicated than that,” Boisture said. The price of an airplane can’t rise fast enough to cover cost increases, Boisture said. “This is a company whose costs are constantly increasing, and the market is not paying us back at the rate they’re increasing,” Boisture said. In the past, Wichita business jetmakers Cessna, Bombardier Learjet and Hawker Beechcraft primarily competed with one another, so costs were similar. In the future, literally “it’s not going to be the guys across the street,” said Textron’s Donnelly. There’s every reason to believe new competitors will have lower cost structures, he said. In addition, the majority of the orders for business jets are coming from global customers. And that’s expected to grow. “That means we’re building stuff in the wrong place, because we’re going to be selling it, servicing it and delivering it on the other side of the word,” Boisture said. That will take some flexibility to figure out what that means for the companies in the future, he said.
outsourcing is not a “zero-sum game,” Spirit’s Turner said, although it can feel that way in the current down cycle. Spirit has been a big recipient of outsourcing. It’s facilities do work for Boeing, Airbus, Sikorsky, Gulfstream, Hawker Beechcraft and others. Airbus turned to Spirit because the Wichita company was on its list of low-cost locations, Turner said. On the other hand, Spirit is outsourcing work as well.

“You’re going to see an ebb and flow as time goes on with those supply networks,” as the value of the dollar improves and productivity of sites improve, Turner said. Some things will be done in-house, some not.

With all the projects Spirit has in the works with customers around the world, the Wichita facility can’t do everything, Turner said. “We’d have a terrible time trying to design, build and ship everything out of Wichita,” Turner said. Expectations, needs Long-term, the market will return and grow. Historically, each up cycle has been more robust than the previous one. “We ultimately have a growth industry,” Turner said.
Eventually, the companies will need a trained work force. They’re expecting a labor shortage when the economy turns around. Long-term, Cessna expects Sedgwick County will face a shortage of enough labor to support all its work, Pelton said. Cessna has an aging work force, and the number of employees eligible for retirement over the next 10 years is high, Pelton said. A work force shortage might sound bizarre considering thousands of Wichita workers were laid off in the past year. But a shortage followed the downturn in the early part of the last decade, Turner said. “It’s going to happen.”

Training is vital. Laid-off workers should be receiving stipends so they can get technical training today, Turner said. “It’s the knowledge of our workers that make the difference,” Turner said. There’s no time to train and retrain when the market is booming. The city and state must work to protect aviation jobs in other ways. In a speech at last week’s Wichita Aero Club luncheon, Gov. Mark Parkinson implored members of Wichita’s aircraft industry to keep jobs in Wichita if they can. Parkinson said he recognizes that some states and areas are working hard to woo jobs by offering lucrative incentive packages. But if the incentives from Kansas are even close, he urged them to keep the work here.

Cessna’s Pelton said Parkinson should have added one thing. He should have said that those incentives are a wake-up call for Wichita and for Kansas. Kansas must be sure it can stand on its own and compete.
“It’s not about the state throwing a lot of money at us,” Pelton said. “It’s about having capabilities in place.”

Keeping the aviation industry competitive is a skilled labor force, competitive labor rates and tax policies and treatments that support an industrial climate, he said. School systems must be able to support the industry, and the state must support the National Institute for Aviation Research and the work force training center, Turner added. There are a lot of ingredients, Pelton said. Wichita must be a dynamic place willing to change, Turner said. “This aviation industry is an absolute jewel for Wichita, south-central Kansas and for Kansas,” Turner said. “We ought to have some serious strategies on how to keep it healthy.”
From: http://www.kansas.com/101/story/1180737.html?storylink=omni_popular#ixzz0fakuJre5

VLJ Dreaming and the Stratos

mgiles — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 04:02:10 +0000

Stratos 714

In the land of Oz we have long distances, high temperatures and a member of the old British colonial family and good mate New Zealand an inconvenient 1200nm or so to the East. One of the results of this is that the aviation oriented members of the Oz community spend a lot of time poring over performance specs, cash flows and maintenance costs not to mention single engine vs twin engine safety analyses so that we can give substance to our dreams of commuting from our place of work in Oz to our hideaway in NZ. Various products come to mind but for the average moderately successful person who is sold on flying their own aircraft to and from there is a slippery slope with no obvious sweet spot. The Cessna Mustang eg looks to be a really good little rocket with considerable charter potential in the SE of Australia as it will cover Vic and NSW Adelaide Melbourne Sydney stuff pretty well but it requires a bit of planning and usually a stop on the way to NZ and certainly one on the way back . The Piperjet looks better but is single engine (on the other hand it is a Turbine and in flight-shut downs are said to be of the order of 1 in 150,000 hrs of operation). It is however still one’s one and only life in the opinion of many and the statistics of twins (likely to lose both engines once in 22.5 trillion hours of operation) are still pursuasive. Since nothing quite fills the bill and the idea of flying a personal aircraft with DOC of more than about $700 per hour starts to look a bit extravagant, people dream on with brochures and business plans spread out before them. As the result of a recent airport purchase the business I am associated with has put the bizjet on the back burner for a few months and this has encouraged a new bout of dreaming. The latest target is the Stratos. Obviously some smart people have got together what they know is about in available technology and decided they can do better than has been done so far. Essentially if they were to achieve their goals there would be an affordable non stop commuter from Oz to NZ. Back to one engine though. Also one engine at 41,000 ft raises some thoughts about emergency descent etc. Probably pie in the sky (one wonders what is in the water they are drinking but does wish them every success). Sooner or later some such will fly and what a buzz that will be.

All-new design airplanes from startup companies are often called “paper airplanes” because the company has no track record of producing any kind of airplane. So when you design a paper airplane, you should shoot for the moon, and Stratos, a new would-be jet maker in Bend, Oregon, has with its Model 714 personal jet. For 2-million bucks per copy Stratos says the 714 will carry four people and baggage for 1,500 nm cruising at 41,000 feet with IFR reserves. Stratos accurately points out that no existing or planned airplane can do all of that.

The Stratos 714 is the brainchild of Carsten Sundin, who has had long involvement with the kit plane maker Lancair, and entrepreneur Michael Lamaire. The Stratos formula is to provide only four seats, high speed and very long range, clearly an airplane that owner-pilots want. To achieve their goals the airplane will be very lightweight because of its composite construction. And the performance will come from plenty of power, 3,030 pounds of thrust from a single Williams FJ44-3AP turbofan engine. With a projected maximum takeoff weight of 7,000 pounds the 714 would have a thrust-to-weight ratio of 2.3 to 1, which is more thrust per pound of airplane than even the speedy Mach .92 Citation X. Typical twin-engine jets have thrust-to-weight ratios of around 3 to 1. Clearly such a power-to-weight ratio would get the 714 to its certified ceiling of 41,000 feet quickly. And if you want to leave friends behind, promised IFR range is 2,000 nm with only two onboard.

Diamond launched the single-engine personal jet category with announcement of its D-Jet several years ago. But the D-Jet concept is far different from Stratos, as Diamond is developing a jet with a performance and operating envelope that will not be a big leap for the single-engine piston pilots expected to be the majority of customers. Cirrus is following a similar path with its SJ50 Vision jet. Piper is aiming for more performance from the PiperJet with a top cruise of 360 knots, and the V-tailed Eclipse EA400 single is somewhere in between with a projected cruise of 330 knots. None of the airplanes have entered production, though Diamond has been flying developmental D-Jets for many months, Cirrus has an early test article in flight, and by the time you read this Piper is expected to have flown a PiperJet.

To accomplish its dream Stratos faces the usual bugbears of keeping empty weight low so payload doesn’t disappear, meeting the stall speed limit of 61 knots for single-engine airplanes, dealing with the spin requirement all singles face, and exploring the certification requirements of turbine singles. For example, no single-engine turbine we know of has been certified for flight above 31,000 feet, and it’s impossible to predict how the FAA will interpret rules that apply above that level. And, of course, the old saying that it is money that propels all airplanes raises a big question mark for any startup manufacturer in today’s economic and credit environment.

Renderings of the 714 show that Stratos has elected to use engine air inlets in the wing roots feeding an engine mounted below and aft of the cabin through ducts. The airplane has two external baggage compartments, one large enough for golf clubs or skis, an important feature for any owner pilot. The wing—for which no dimensions were released—is to be of laminar flow design, and Stratos will pressurize the cabin to such a level that it will remain at or below 6,000 feet when the airplane is flying at 41,000 feet.

The speed, range, payload and selling price goals of the 714 all appear to be very difficult to achieve—a point driven home by the fact that none of the other companies have even attempted them—but the most challenging target in the Stratos plan is first delivery in early 2010. That gives the company just over 18 months to build prototypes, complete certification and enter production. For more information, contact Stratos at stratosaircraft.com.
From http://www.flyingmag.com/turbine/1093/stratos-dreams-big-with-small714-single-engine-jet.html

G 650 Rolls out under its own steam

mgiles — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 22:11:34 +0000

G 650

Gulfstream Aerospace has Rolled Out it’s new Flagship Aircraft, the All-new Gulfstream G650

Gulfstream Aerospace, now a wholly owned subsidiary of General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) and once upon a time a part of Grumman, today revealed its new flagship business jet, the all-new Gulfstream G650, at company headquarters in Savannah. The aircraft rolled out under its own power. First announced in March 2008, the ultra-large-cabin, ultra-long-range G650 remains on schedule for customer deliveries in 2012. Approximately 7,000 people gathered at the new G650 manufacturing building for the aircraft’s debut. The audience included state and local dignitaries, customers, certifying authorities, supplier representatives, members of the G650 development team and many other employees at the Savannah facility.
The aircraft raises the bar in every area including price and it is a great achivement that is has been developed on schedule and without developmen glitches

“We’ve all been looking forward to this day since we officially announced the G650 program last year,” said Joe Lombardo, executive vice president, General Dynamics Aerospace group. “Simply put, the Gulfstream G650 is in a class by itself. I want to thank everyone who made this aircraft possible. I share the tremendous amount of pride you have for this significant piece of aviation history. Like you, I am eagerly awaiting the first flight later this year.”

The G650 offers the longest range, fastest speed, largest cabin and the most advanced cockpit in the Gulfstream fleet. It features an all-new fuselage cross section, allowing a wider and taller cabin than the previous top-of-the-line G550 model. The G650 is capable of traveling 7,000 nautical miles at 0.85 Mach and has a maximum operating speed of 0.925, which will make it the fastest civil aircraft flying. It can climb to an altitude of 51,000 feet, which allows it to avoid traffic and inclement weather.

“Our customers had an instrumental role in the design of the G650,” said Pres Henne, senior vice president, Programs, Engineering and Test, Gulfstream. “The G650 will set new levels of performance in aircraft capability, cabin environment and maintainability. Customer input was used to guide fuselage size selection as well as aircraft performance characteristics. The G650 offers unprecedented speed and range, superb takeoff performance, an all-new Gulfstream wing, best-in-class Rolls-Royce BR725 engines, and top-of-the-line aesthetics. It provides the most technologically advanced flight deck in business aviation with the PlaneViewTM II cockpit and an advanced aircraft health and trend monitoring system to support aircraft maintenance planning and improve availability.

“Along with traditional measures of aircraft performance, significant effort has been spent in ensuring the cabin will be in a class by itself. The Gulfstream Cabin EssentialTM systems include redundant fiber optic and wireless technologies, along with the latest innovations in lighting, seating, acoustics and cabin systems to provide the most productive cabin environment in business aviation. Three-dimensional electronic design tools were used to design the entire aircraft, facilitating remarkable part precision, allowing ease of assembly and proper placement of components for ease of maintenance and shorter downtimes. The up-front, detailed engineering effort and its end result are a real tribute to the engineering and manufacturing teams.”

The G650 features a cabin that measures 102 inches wide and 77 inches high, the largest purpose-built cabin in business aviation. The extra space allows for larger galleys and lavatories, and increased storage. The aircraft, which seats 11-18 passengers, also features 16 panoramic windows that measure 28 by 20.5 inches, the largest in the industry; improved sound levels; a vacuum toilet system; and in-flight access to 195 cubic feet of usable volume in the baggage compartment.

Gulfstream announced the G650 on March 13, 2008, in Savannah. The aircraft is on schedule for first flight later this year and is expected to be certified in 2011. Entry-into-service is planned for 2012.
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Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), designs, develops, manufactures, markets, services and supports the world’s most technologically advanced business-jet aircraft. Gulfstream has produced some 1,800 aircraft for customers around the world since 1958. To meet the diverse transportation needs of the future, Gulfstream offers a comprehensive fleet of aircraft, comprising the wide-cabin, high-speed Gulfstream G150®; the large-cabin, mid-range Gulfstream G200®; the new large-cabin, mid-range Gulfstream G250®; the large-cabin, mid-range Gulfstream G350®; the large-cabin, long-range G450®; the large-cabin, ultra-long-range Gulfstream G500®; the large-cabin, ultra-long-range Gulfstream G550® and the ultra-large-cabin, ultra-long-range G650®. Gulfstream also offers aircraft ownership services via Gulfstream Financial Services Division and Gulfstream Pre-Owned Aircraft Sales®. The company employs more than 9,000 people at seven major locations. We invite you to visit our Web site for more information and photos of Gulfstream aircraft at www.gulfstream.com.

General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), headquartered in Falls Church, Va., employs approximately 92,000 people worldwide. The company is a market leader in business aviation; land and expeditionary combat systems, armaments and munitions; shipbuilding and marine systems; and information systems and technologies. More information about General Dynamics is available online at www.gd.com.
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Dark days of Eclipse over – Maybe

mgiles — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 02:52:57 +0000

Eclipse was a game changer and an historic episode in aviation. When it finally fell on its sword or was forced to face reality many were deeply saddened but few were really surprised. it had all sounded too good to be true from the outset and so it turned out to be. The normal routine fighting over the corps has been prolonged but maybe it is over and perhaps just maybe Eclipse has a future and a secure place in Aviation.
Just yesterday a Federal Judge approved the $40 million purchase of Eclipse Aviation.
This gives the Albuquerque-based manufacturer a chance to restart production and support of its light jet.

The chairman and president of the new Eclipse Aerospace, Mason Holland Jr. of Charleston, S.C. said he expects the company to reopen its doors debt-free but on a smaller scale than its predecessor on Sept. 1.

“The old Eclipse was a great company. They made a great product, but the fatal flaw was they focused on growth first and profit second,” Holland said. “We’re going to focus on profitability first and growth second.”

The new company will do business as Eclipse Aviation but has no immediate plans, given the current economy, to restart production of the Eclipse 500 at this time.

The jet-making plant shut in February, putting 800 employees out of work. When the new company opens its doors next month, it will employ 15 managers and key engineers.

Eventually Holland envisions 500 to 600 employees producing several hundred jets each year, but Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez said the company represents more than just jobs.

“Eclipse is a symbol for the city of Albuquerque,” Chavez said. “I am so delighted in its rebirth, the fact the community was able to snatch victory from defeat.”

Within about six months, plans are to employ several hundred people and once the economy recovers and the company becomes profitable, to restart production.

“They believe they can make money,” Chavez said.

Mike Press of Chesterfield, Mo., who co-founded the new company with Holland and is its executive vice president, said revenue will come from $100,000 to $500,000 worth of upgrades on each of the 259 jets produced. The owners will be charged for the upgrades, though Press said prices have not been set. A Chicago-based service center began upgrading aircraft in June.

“We’re going to price it with some profit, but we’re not going to gouge the owners,” he said. The former Eclipse firm had told owners it would do the upgrades free of charge.

The company also plans to buy back aircraft from owners and fleet operators to refurbish them for resale.

Press said the new company will examine products manufactured by Eclipse that they can market. Among the assets is a patent on a non-ozone depleting fire suppression system, which could be marketed to other jet manufacturers.

Holland, founder of Benefitfocus.com, Inc., which employs 500 people in South Carolina, was a 60 percent deposit holder of an Eclipse 500 that was never delivered. He turned from pursuing litigation against Eclipse’s former owners to buying the company after he and Press — a retired Air Force colonel, former Northrop Grumman executive and light jet broker — met with Eclipse customers.

“We went to 27 cities in 15 days and we met with over 300 owners and deposit holders of Eclipse aircraft,” Holland said. “Every single pilot and owner, unanimously, loves the plane. That’s why we decided to buy the company.”

Eclipse’s troubles came to light progressively as customers found the compnay incresingly unresponsive and rumours began toi circulae4 about it sailong close to the financila wind. In July 2008 its founder and chief executive, former Microsoft executive Vern Raburn, was ousted in a management shake-up. A month later, the company laid off nearly 40 percent of its work force and last fall failed to make payroll.

Eclipse entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings in November.

A federal bankruptcy judge approved the sale of Eclipse to its largest shareholder, ETIRC Aviation, in January. When financing failed to materialize by February, the company went into Chapter 7 liquidation.

Former Eclipse executives blamed the manufacturer’s downfall on the recession, but analysts criticized its business model as flawed by failed promises to produce a high volume of jets at low cost.

Holland says the days of over-promising and bad press for Eclipse are finished.

“No big promises, just good core business,” he said.

Let us hope.

Paris Airshow looks good

mgiles — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 03:53:49 +0000

Organizers of next week’s centennial Paris Air Show said Monday the world’s biggest aviation industry gathering won’t be diminished by the global economic crisis, which has hit the aviation industry hard.

Organizers expect around 300,000 visitors this year, half of them professionals, about the same as the last show in 2007 — despite notable no-shows such as business jet makers Gulfstream and Cessna.

“This year again, despite the crisis we consider that it is a considerable success because we’re full,” said Louis Le Portz, the air show’s chief executive. Roughly the same number of exhibitors will be present as in 2007, around 2,000, Le Portz said.

The show is taking place against the backdrop of an industry in deep difficulty, according to data released Monday by the International Air Transport Association. The Geneva-based body representing 230 airlines worldwide warned that the world’s airlines will collectively lose $9 billion this year — nearly double the previous loss projections.

Weak consumer confidence, high business inventories and rising oil prices leave the industry facing a slow recovery as the economic crisis saps air travel and cargo demand, the association said during a two-day global aviation conference in Kuala Lumpur.

The show is also taking place under the cloud of last week’s crash of an Air France Airbus jet flying from Rio de Janeiro to Paris, killing all 228 people aboard.

Charles Edelstenne, the chairman of French aeronautic industry body GIFAS, expressed the industry’s “profound emotion and solidarity for all those touched by the catastrophe.”

“Of course we had a few no-shows in the parts of the industry especially hard-hit by the crisis, like business
jets,” Le Portz added. “But we sold out all the available stands and chalets.”

Gulfstream said it had decided not to exhibit at this year’s Paris Air Show because it had been present at the European Business Aviation Conference in Geneva last month.

Other big aviation names who are coming have cut back on the size or number of their stands and chalets, Le Portz said, without citing specific examples. “It’s to save money, it’s normal,” he said.

But these cutbacks have been offset by a record number of participating small- and medium-sized companies, Le Portz said — around 1,500.

Around 25 civilian and several military jets will make demonstration flights during the air show, including the
first appearance outside Russia of Sukhoi’s new Superjet 100, seen as key to Russia’s attempts to revitalize its civilian aircraft industry.

Notable for their absence will be the Airbus A400M transport and Boeing’s 787 jetliner. Boeing’s new long-range widebody is going through more tests as it prepares for its first flight by the end of next month.

Airbus parent company EADS has indefinitely postponed the first flight of the A400M transport and is now negotiating new technical requirements and commercial terms with the seven European NATO countries that first ordered the plane.

To celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Paris Air Show, which alternates every other year with the Farnborough International Airshow outside London, 30 historic aircraft from various epochs of aviation history will also be on display, organizers said. The historic aircraft include a Bleriot XI, a plane shown at the first Paris Air Show in 1909, held in the Grand Palais on the Champs-Elysees.

The show opens to industry and the press June 15, and is open to the public June 19-21.

Bizjet recovery??

mgiles — Fri, 22 May 2009 23:13:26 +0000

Recovery Is in Sight, Say Bizjet Makers at Ebace

Their production slowed, workforces slashed, products and reputations besmirched,

and giddy forecasts turned into fiction, the battered and bruised makers of

business aircraft are beginning to express cautious optimism that the current

market downturn may be changing direction.

Hopeful signs include some sales of large-cabin aircraft and increased interest in

general aviation models, says Gulfstream Aerospace President Joe Lombardo, who was

among the many industry executives gathering at the European Business Aviation

Convention and Exhibition (Ebace) here last week. Compared to February, which saw a

steady stream of order cancellations and deferrals, Lombardo says, “anything is

better.”

“This crisis is much deeper than any of us had expected,” admits Dassault Aviation

Chairman Charles Edelstenne, but he insists, “all is not doom and gloom.” He notes,

for example, that the number of used Falcons on the market “seems to have

stabilized,” declining below 160 in March and April. “Clearly, things are leveling

off,” he says.

“It’s been a tough go at Cessna these past few months,” concedes Cessna Chairman,

President and CEO Jack Pelton, “but the worst is behind us.” He says recent

economic indicators are encouraging and predicts the used aircraft inventory will

peak and the drop-off in flight activity will cease by the third quarter of this

year. The company will deliver some 300 Citations this year and, while that

compares unfavorably with the 467 delivered in 2008, it “would be cause for

celebration” in any other year, he says. Meanwhile, the Wichita, Kan.-based

aircraft maker will deliver a record number of turboprop Caravans in 2009.

Nicholas Chabbert, senior vice president of general aviation for Daher-Socata,

which produces the TBM single-engine business turboprop, says his company expects

to deliver nearly the same number of aircraft as in 2008, a performance “much

better than we could have anticipated.”

The used aircraft market is stabilizing, agrees Luis Carlos Affonso, senior vice

president for executive aircraft at Embraer, which expects new aircraft sales to

recover by 2011. And while the Brazilian original equipment manufacturer revised

downward its 10-year forecast for executive jet deliveries to 10,990 from 13,000,

that lowered rate is still near the industry’s peak and represents $188 billion in

cumulative sales.

Though the environment is definitely “challenging,” says Bob Horner, senior vice

president for Bombardier Business Aircraft, the Learjet 85 is moving forward and

the company has solid cash reserves that should help it ride out the crisis.

A part of the collective, if tentative, optimism stems from an initiative that took

place in Washington early this month to gain support for the business aviation

industry among members of Congress and the Obama administration, both of which have

criticized business jet use in recent months. The chill from those remarks, plus

the economic downturn, has resulted in the loss of 15,000 manufacturing jobs,

according to the General Aviation Manufacturers Assn. (GAMA), and could do lasting

damage if not reversed.

It was under GAMA’s banner that scores of manufacturing executives, divided into 10

groups, participated in 66 meetings with legislators and their staffs in the

Capitol May 6. U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood addressed the group, and

Pelton and Lombardo were invited to the White House to speak with a presidential

aide about business aviation’s concerns. Lombardo describes the meeting as “very

productive,” and says he and Pelton extended an invitation to anyone at the White

House to visit Wichita or Savannah, Ga., or any other center of general aviation

jobs.

Original http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=awst&id=news/aw051809p2.xml&headline=Recovery%20Is%20in%20Sight,%20Say%20Bizjet%20Makers%20at%20Ebace